Will Gezi Park protest be a turning point?

Many analysts of Turkish politics, including foreign ones, consider the Gezi Park events as a turning point in modern Turkish history. The essential question is, of course, a turning point of what? The answers vary, as can be expected. For some, the decline of Justice and Development Party (AK Party) rule has begun. According to them, the universal wearing down of power is now under way in Turkey. The examples of Margaret Thatcher, Tony Blair and even George Washington are widely used as reminders.
A new opposition emerged For others, the AK Party, and particularly its uncontestable leader, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has to reconsider its authoritarian style of governance and should prioritize the pending democratic reforms. If not, the risks of destabilization will increase. I rather agree with the second interpretation. It is true that the AK Party government is facing multiple challenges. Its stubbornness over a presidential system is blocking work on the drafting of a new constitution. The settlement process, aiming to end the armed conflict with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), is awaiting democratic reforms in order to continue on its path. The country's foreign policy seems more and more reluctant to face the unpleasant realities in the region. The Turkish economy is trapped in low and poor quality growth because of many constraints such as low productivity and a high current account deficit (CAD) combined with high inflation. However, these challenges, or unsolved problems, have not yet produced a disavowal of the “independent electors” voting for the AK Party because of the absence of a credible opposition that is more capable of tackling the challenges cited above. Voting intention surveys done before the Gezi Park events had unanimously indicated that the AK Party managed to retain slightly over 50 percent of support. Can the political outcomes of the Gezi Park protests distort the actual political equilibrium? I think that they can, particularly if Mr. Erdoğan continues with his arrogant as well as authoritarian style and if the AK Party continues to insist on the wrong priorities. Indeed, during the days preceding the Gezi Park protests, the AK Party government made a number of faux pas that were amplified by the prime minister's almost provocative discourse. Those missteps and hurtful injunctions of Mr. Erdoğan have largely been debated by Todays' Zaman columnists, and I do not want to repeat them. Nevertheless, I can say that those faux pas and Erdoğan's injunctions were all either political messages directed at the AK Party's conservative electorate or the expressions of narcissism of a power drunk on its own success. Let me remind you that the AK Party is a unique example in democratic regimes, at least according to my knowledge, which has won three successive elections, increasing its margin even more each time. The Gezi Park protests made clear that the AK Party's style of governance ended up causing a sentiment of “basta” among non-conservatives and, at the same time, the politically unengaged segments of Turkish society, pushing them into a political combat. Recently a very interesting survey done by Bilgi University academics of Gezi protesters fully confirmed the existing narrative about the characteristics of these protesters. Three thousand of them answered different questions regarding their motivations, political thinking and so on. They are quite young; 54 percent are aged between 19 and 30. Fifty-four percent have never participated in a mass demonstration before, while 70 percent have no political engagement. The protesters who identified with a political party were limited to just 8 percent. Close to 92 percent of protesters were in Taksim Square because they were offended by the prime minister's discourse and were angered by the violence perpetrated by the security forces. The share of those who defined themselves as “liberal” is 82 percent, while those who do not consider themselves “conservative” is 75 percent. Those who had voted for the AK Party were limited to 8 percent. The Gezi Park protesters are not in favor of a military coup to overthrow the government. The partisans of such a coup are limited to 9 percent, while overall in Turkey the percentage supporting the protests easily reaches 30 percent. And last but not least, 37 percent of protesters demanded a new opposition party. Those figures reveal that we are, indeed, facing a new kind of opposition. The AK Party leaders used to think that as long as the economy grows, macroeconomic stability is secured, poverty is diminished and impressive mega projects are on the agenda, the business community would interfere only in economic affairs and that the majority of citizens can be satisfied and might even admire a benevolent dictator. If the AK Party correctly interprets the message of Gezi Park and understands that democracy is also a regime of liberties and respecting others' thinking, it will be able to remain in power for a while.