I have been impatiently waiting to see what the
central bank would say in its July inflation report published on Thursday about
its new inflation forecast, and particularly on the drift of the lira which we
are currently witnessing.
If I have to give my quick impression, I would say
our central bank is still in its usual optimistic mood that has never been
justified in the last few years.
The tradition is that the central bank announces a
year-end inflation forecast quite close to the target of 5 percent in its first
inflation report published each January. Then it makes an upward revision in
April, followed by a third revision, still an upward one, in July and so on. At
the end of the year, the inflation rate unfortunately reaches a level over 7
percent, obliging the central bank, along with the existing rule, to write a
letter to the government explaining the reasons for the failure. It is worth
noting that these reasons always involve external shocks like a
greater-than-expected depreciation of the lira or an out-of-control increase in
food prices.
The tradition was followed this year as well. We
started with year-end inflation forecasted at 5.5 percent, which was revised up
to 6.8 percent in April. For the July revision, I was expecting a new forecast
slightly over 7 percent but the central bank stood at just 6.9 percent,
contenting itself with just a 0.1 percent increase. The annual inflation rate
at the end of June being 7.2 percent, the central bank expects inflation to
fall slightly. If inflation stands just under 7 percent, the central bank
governor will not be obliged to write the usual letter to the government. Let
me note that Governor Erdem Başçı underlined in his presentation that inflation
must be kept under 7 percent. Let me also add that the forecast for 2016 has
been maintained at 5.5 percent in line with tradition.
The central bank's calculations for this year might
be summarized as follows: Falling food prices thanks to better weather
conditions would contribute 0.3 percentage points and energy prices 0.1
percentage points. Nevertheless, the central bank admits the
greater-than-expected depreciation of the lira has adversely affected its inflation
forecast by 0.5 percentage points. This is a critical point regarding the
inflation dynamic. Because of ongoing political uncertainties -- the likelihood
of an early election is now almost 100 percent -- the drift of the lira
continues. The overall depreciation of the lira against the dollar and the euro
reached 3.5 percent in the last few days. Adding the expected monetary policy
move by the US Fed in a few months and the turmoil derived by a new electoral
campaign that will be harsher than the previous one, we should expect a greater
depreciation of the lira, all the more since the central bank does not seem
ready to react.
Indeed, the central bank appreciates that the
actual monetary policy is tight enough and does not need to be changed to curb
the high inflation. The inflation report estimates that the expected real
interest rate considering the market interest rate of two-year Treasury bonds
and the expected inflation for the same term is close to 3 percent, which is
slightly higher than the expected real rates in most emerging markets. It is
worth noting the increase in market interest rates combined with inflation
expectations that are rather under control pushed up the Turkish real interest
rate at some extent in the recent past. That said, it is uncertain if inflation
expectations might be kept under control in the near future given the existing
risks. One may argue the central bank can intervene in the currency market by
increasing its actual sales of $40 million per day. However, do not forget that
currency reserves of around $120 billion are not considered comfortable when
facing the risk of capital outflows. A recent Commerzbank report shows that
Turkey is among the most fragile economies in the event of a Sudden Stop.
I hope the central bank is right in refusing to
consider further tightening of its monetary policy but my experience and
intuition tell me it is still too optimistic.