What strategy could be better for the AK Party?

Recent debates on different scenarios regarding the timing of the upcoming elections prove that Turkey has already entered into the long-lasting, painful electoral period. Three elections and a referendum are on the agenda. The dates of two out of three of the elections are fixed: Local elections will be held in March of 2014 and the election for the president of the republic will be in August of 2014.
Risks of insistence on presidential system General elections are forecast to be held in June of 2015, but they may be held earlier; this is up to the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) since it has the majority in Parliament. The date of a possible referendum on the new constitution is unknown at the moment. The schedule of these elections is critical, concerning political outcomes as well as the pace of the Turkish economy. The game maker is obviously the AK Party. Its goals and its maneuvering capabilities will determine the schedule. The goals are quite clear: The AK Party wants a new constitution in which a presidential or semi-presidential regime will be integrated. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan wants to be elected president of a presidential regime, and preferably in the first round, supported by a comfortable majority. Furthermore, the AK Party, as the incumbent party, wants to win the coming general elections with a number of seats exceeding 330 -- the majority required to bring the new constitution to referendum -- in case it is not possible to hold a referendum before the general elections. Here are too many, and quite ambitious, goals. How about the maneuvering capabilities? The way is very narrow and there are unwelcome constraints. First of all, the AK Party does not possess the 330 seats it needs; it lacks only a few of them, but since the voting on constitutional changes is confidential, it can never be positive it has secured the support of all of its deputies. The additional votes to support its constitutional proposal can be provided only by the deputies of the pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) and possibly by some deputies of the Republican People's Party (CHP) that belong to its social democratic faction. So, the AK Party must look for compromises with those deputies. The problem is that they are firmly opposed to the presidential regime, at least as it is suggested by the AK Party. It is clear that the AK Party must give up its presidential regime goal if it desires to have a new constitution before the presidential election, and even before local elections. Indeed, the success of the settlement process with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and with the BDP depends on the democratic reforms in the electoral system, the laws regarding political parties, the judiciary system and, last but not least, the Constitution. The constitutional reform cannot be done without the support of the BDP. On the other hand, the success of the settlement process is vital for the electoral success of the AK Party in the coming elections. Another factor that is not vital but very important for the electoral success of the ruling party is the attitude of voters who support the AK Party based on its management of the economy.      Now, the economy is not doing well. Signs of a “middle income trap” are increasing for Turkey. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth is under 3 percent. The unemployment rate has not yet shown an alarming rise, but this is because of the extent of negative labor productivity gains during the last few quarters. As a result, the income per capita has started to stagnate. The main reason for this stagnation is the postponement of difficult economic reforms because of possible political costs, precisely in deference to the coming elections. Those difficult reforms could have caused vote losses for the AK Party, but if the economy continues to be trapped in a low-growth regime, the more time the elections take, the more the AK Party will risk losing electors. Given these constraints, I think, the only rational strategy for the AK Party -- without giving up its goals and ambitions -- should be the following: Postpone ambitions for the presidency after the general elections. Successfully finish democratic reforms in collaboration with the BDP and the social democratic faction of CHP before local elections. The referendum can be held by the end of this year. Mr. Erdoğan will be able to be elected in August of next year and, I guess, it would be with a very large electoral support -- given the success of the peace process, which is capable of overshadowing increasing economic troubles. Then, proceed to early elections in autumn 2014, in which a referendum majority for the AK Party is highly probable if, by then, the electoral system is reformed, canceling the 10 percent threshold. This also would require strongly downsizing the electoral districts at the same time. Doing so, the new AK Party government will be able to focus on economic reforms earlier, and this way it would gain valuable time for the Turkish economy and minimize the political risks it would face otherwise.